Weekly Outlook November 23-27,2015

Last week:

US dollar losing its grip after the meeting minute, but recovered until the end of the week. The Fed meeting minutes, which held in October, shows that the opportunity for the rate hike in December still exist.

This week: 

The main event that should watch for this week including US and UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods. The forecast shows that the figure will be better in the US, so in the nutshell I still bullish on US dollar.


  • French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) (m/m): expect to slightly up from 50.6 to be 50.7.  Index move above 50.0 in the last two months. Figures above 50 shows some industry expansion.
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI (m/m): expect to slightly up from 52.1 to be 52.2.  This year highest level is 53.2, in September.


  • German Ifo Business Climate (m/m): index for German industry fell from 108.5 to 108.2 in September, or the first drop since June this year. Business sentiment expects to slightly increase from 108.2 to be 108.3 in October.
  • US Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (q/q): expect to see a Q3/2015 figure around 2.0% which would be above previous expectation at 1.5%.  This 2.0% figure, which is the second release, is still below the Q2/2015 figure at 3.7%  but looking better than the previous expectations.
  • US CB Consumers Confidence (m/m): expect the index to rise to 99.3 after fell in October to 97.6 or lower in the last 3 months. This index revealed the consumer confidence on the prospect of the rate hike.


  • US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m): expect to rise from -0.3% to be 0.5%. Order for durable product worsened in the last four month, but analysts expect this month will be better than the previous.
  • US Unemployment Claims (w/w): expect to slightly increase rise from 271k to be 273k this week. The figure remains below the 300k and the trend still in the downtrend.


  • New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m): expect to see a better figure from – NZD 1,222 mn to be – NZD 1,000 mn. The figure remains deficit in the last 4 months.


  • UK Second Estimate GDP (q/q): the first estimate in Q2/2015 is 0.5%, lower than the previous quarter. The second estimate figure is expected to be the same as the first estimate at 0.5%.

That is several major events that I think should be considered this week.



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