Weekly Outlook November 30-December 4, 2015

Last week:

  • The US economy printed better growth rate, showing annual GDP 2.1% in the third quarter. Jobless claims fell 12,000 than last week figures. Is it a good signal for the Fed to raise the interest rate on December?
  • In Eurozone, last week the pair drops in respond to the ECB’s plan to expand the bond buying under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) or the quantitative easing program, according to this article.

This week: 

For this week, there were 3 rate decisions from the central bank in Australia, Canada and Eurozone, which predicted there would be no change. Another event that should heavily consider comes from the US. The Non-Farm Employment (NFP) figures will be released and lots of prediction shows that the figure will drop.

*All time are GMT

Tuesday:

  • 1.00 am Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) (m/m): expect to slightly down from 49.9 to be 49.8.  Index move below 50.0 in the last 3 months. Figures above 50 shows some industry expansion. The trend still range.
  • 1.45 am Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m): expect to stay at 48.3, with the trend shows some weaknesses.
  • 3.30 am Australian Rate Decision: markets predict that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will keep the cash rate at 2.0%. Last week speech from the governor shows some indication that the RBA still opens the chance to cut their rate in the next upcoming months.
  • 9.00 am The BOE (Bank of England) governor speech: Mark Carney will speak about the Financial Stability Report and UK Bank Stress. The governor remarks that the interest rate will remain low at least until 2016. It would be interesting to see whether the statement still occurs or not.
  • 9.30 am UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m): expect to down from 55.5 to 53.7. The figures still move above the 50.0 and increase sharply last month.
  • 1.30 pm Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (m/m): expect to stay at 0.1%. The figures show some weaknesses in the last 3 months, but compared to what happened before the September’s figure it still looks better.
  • 3.00 pm US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m): this month, the index is expected to print a better figure from 50.1 to be 50.6. After posted the lowest figures since 2013 in October, market forecast that this month will be better than last month.

Wednesday:

  • 00.30 am Australian GDP (q/q):   after moved to its slowest speed since Dec 2010 and only recorded 0.2% growth last quarter, markets expect that Australian economy this quarter will expand 0.7%.
  • 09.30 am UK Construction PMI (m/m): expect to down from 58.8 to be 58.4. The trend is still up
  • 1.15 pm US ADP Non-Farm Employment (NFP): an early look at the employment growth is expected to show a 191,000 or better than last month figure (182,000). This figure showing some optimism on US economy.
  • 03.00 pm Canadian rate decision: expect to hold its overnight rate at 0.5%. This month policy predicts stance remains as the economy is still rebounding, supported by the effects of last rate cuts, with the inflation is expected to expand to be about 1.5-1.7%. The GDP growth forecast revised downwards because of lower prices on oil and commodities. The BoC (Bank of Canada) predict 1.0% growth this year, 2% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.
  • 5.25 pm The Fed governor speech: speaking about the economy outlook, it will be interesting to see what signal that Janet Yellen will say this time. Recently, Janet Yellen signaling that the December rate hike is still on. With the NFP in Friday, we could interpert his words as a signal for an upcoming event.

Thursday:

  • 00.30 am Australian Trade Balance (m/m): expect to see worse figures from -AUD 2.32 billion to be -AUD 2.61 billion. Trade balance still shows deficit throughout 2015.
  • 09.30 am UK Services PMI (m/m): expect to move up from 54.9 to be 55.1.
  • 12.45 pm Eurozone rate decision: expect to hold its rate at 0.05% despite the possibility of increasing amount on quantitative easing (QE) in December. There will probably be a suprise in the Eurozone interest rate this month.
  • 1.30 pm US Unemployment Claims (w/w): expect to slightly increase from 260k to be 269k this week. The figure remains below the 300k and still in the downtrend.
  • 3.00 pm US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m): the index is expected to slightly down from 59.1 to be 58.1, but the trend still shows an upward movement.

Friday:

  • 01.30 pm Canadian employment: after generates good figures on employment last month (+44.4k jobs), this month expect to see a drops to 0.7k jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 7.0%
  • 01.30 pm Canadian Trade Balance: expect to see same figures at -CAD 1.71 billion this month. from -AUD 2.32 billion. Trade balance still shows deficit throughout 2015.
  • 01.30 pm US Non-Farm Employment (NFP): expect to see a gain of 201,000 jobs this month, or worse than last month figure (271,000 jobs). This month unemployment rate is predicted to stay at 5.0%.
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