Weekly Outlook January 11-15, 2015

Last week:

  • The US Non-Farm Employment (NFP) increased by 292k in December 2015, higher than a 252k in the previous month. The average hourly earnings fell slightly (-1 cent) to $25.24.
  • The US jobless rate was at 5 percent in December 2015, same with the October and November figure and remain at its lowest level since April 2008.
  • The oil price continued to fell and reach the lowest level since 2004. The geopolitical event between Saudi Arabia and Iran seems like doesn’t affect the oil price.

This week: 

There several event to be considered for this week, include: the US retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment, the UK rate decision and also Australian employment data.

*All time are GMT

Tuesday: 

  • 09.30 am UK Manufacturing Production (m/m): expect to see a better figure from -0.4% to be 0.1%.

Wednesday: 

  • 03.30 pm US Crude Oil Inventories (m/m): oil inventories in the US stumbled by -5.1 million barrels last week, after climbing up by 2.6 million barrels in the previous week. Oil price still continued to feel.

Thursday: 

  • 12.30 am Australia employment data (m/m): this month, the labor market predicted will lose -10.3k jobs after added extraordinary 71.4k jobs in the previous month. While the unemployment expected to slightly up from 5.8% last month to 5.9%. The unemployment rate reached its lowest figure since June 2014.
  • 12.00 pm UK interest rate: the BOE (Bank of England) predict will hold it rate at 0.50% and likely to keep steady until the end of 2016. Inflation rate still below 2% target, the growth rate has weakened with the last quarter shows 0.4% growth or slower than Q2 2015 with the annual growth advanced 2.1% (y/y) and lower than previous period (2.3%) and also remarkable drop on oil price become considerations.
  • 01.30 pm US unemployment claims (w/w): the unemployment data is expected to reach 278k, or worse than the previous week (277k). Despite the weaknesses that market’s predict for this week, the figures on unemployment still show optimism.

Friday: 

  • 01.30 pm US retail sales (m/m): the core retail sales (excluding automobiles) is predicted will decline from 0.4% to be 0.2%, while the retail sales also predicted will go down from 0.2% to be 0.1%.
  • 01.30 pm US PPI (Producer Price Index) (m/m): after posted positive result last month, producer price index is predicted to contracted this month from 0.3% to be -0.1%.
  • 03.00 pm US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (m/m): the final figure on consumer sentiment in December is revised up to 92.6, higher than the first figure at 91.8. This month consumer sentiment is expected to reach 93.0 or better than the figure in December 2015 (92.6) showing some optimism among the consumers about the current economic condition.
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