Weekly Outlook February 8-12, 2016

Last week:

  • A mix report comes from employment data. The unemployment rate in the United States (US) dropped to 4.9% in January, better than 5% in the previous month while the non-farm payroll employment (NFP) increased in the figure that not only lower than the previous month, but also lower-than-expected 151k peoples.
  • The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) drop 2.3% to 53.5% in January or the lowest since February 2014.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of England (BOE) hold their interest rates at 2.0% and 0.5% in February. The prospect of United Kingdom (UK) interest rate rise got ease after the BOE cut the forecast for growth and inflation. The BOE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also votes 9-0 for the rate hike, compare to the 8-1 votes on the previous month.

This week: 

There several event to be considered for this week, including the US retail sales and consumer sentiment, also the UK manufacturing production. 

*All time are GMT

Wednesday: 

  • 09.30 am UK Manufacturing Production (m/m): expect to see a better figure from -0.4% to be 0.0%.
  • 03.00 pm The Fed Chair Speaks: Jennet Yellen will speak in Washington DC and on this occasion Yellen may explain The Fed policy to leave the interest rate unchanged and maybe on its speech there is an indication when The Fed will hike their interest rate.
  • 03.30 pm US Crude Oil Inventories (m/m): oil inventories in the US increased by 7.8 million barrels last week, better than the market expectation. Market expect that the uptrend keep continued this week.

Thursday: 

  • 01.30 pm US unemployment claims (w/w): the unemployment data is expected to reach 287k, or slightly worse than the previous week (285k). Despite the weaknesses that market’s predict for this week, the figures on unemployment still show optimism.
  • 10.30 pm RBA Governor Speaks: the RBA decide to keep their rates this month at 2.0%. The global economy condition, especially economic growth in China and commodity prices, become concerns. The decline in Australia’s term of trade still continued.  Surveys of the business condition in Australia, especially expansion in the non-mining economy shows some improvement, with the unemployment rate declined.

Friday: 

  • 07.30 am  German Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (q/q): German expect to expand by 0.3% in the Q4, or unchanged from the previous quarter.
  • 01.30 pm US retail sales (m/m): the core retail sales (excluding automobiles) is predicted will increase from -0.1% to be 0.0%, while the retail sales also predicted will go up from -0.1% to be 0.1%.
  • 03.00 pm US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (m/m): the final figure on consumer sentiment in January is revised down to 92.0, lower than the first figure at 93.3. This month consumer sentiment is expected to reach 92.6 or better than the figure in January which showing some optimism among the consumers about the current economic condition.
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